Global food prices increased for the second consecutive month in August, with climate-related shocks, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to trade raising fresh concerns about the outlook for food supplies, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, FAO.
The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, representing a 2.5-point increase, or 1.9 percent, from the revised July figure. Compared with August 2025, the index was 3.3 points, or 2.5 percent, higher.
Despite the latest increase, global food prices remained significantly below the record level reached during the food-price surge of March 2022. The August index was 26.9 points, equivalent to 16.8 percent, below that peak.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said the latest movement in prices should be viewed as an indication that risks are once again influencing global food markets.
“August’s increase in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets,” Torero said.
He linked the pressure to a combination of climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disruptions affecting trade logistics, warning that these factors were tightening expectations about future supplies.
“Climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations, showing that resilience, open trade and secure input flows are now central to global food-price stability,” he explained.
Cereal Prices Reach Highest Level Since May 2024
All five commodity categories tracked by the FAO Food Price Index recorded increases during August, signalling broad-based upward movement across the international food market.
The FAO Cereal Price Index recorded one of the notable gains, rising 2.2 percent to 116.3 points. The increase pushed the index to its highest level since May 2024.
Wheat prices climbed 2.6 percent during the month. FAO attributed the increase to continued disruptions affecting exports through the Black Sea, alongside weaker production prospects in parts of Europe.
Hot and dry weather contributed to concerns about European wheat production, adding pressure to expectations surrounding global availability.
Maize prices also increased, gaining 2.5 percent. The rise was linked to concerns over yields in the United States and European Union, while strong demand from the ethanol and animal-feed sectors provided additional support.
Uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s export flows also remained a factor affecting the maize market.
The combined movement in wheat and maize contributed to the broader rise in the cereal index and highlighted the effect of weather conditions and trade disruptions on expectations for major staple commodities.
Vegetable Oil and Sugar Prices Increase
Vegetable oils also recorded another monthly increase, with the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rising 0.6 percent to 196.9 points.
It was the third consecutive monthly increase for the index and took it to its highest level since June 2022.
The latest rise was driven largely by palm and soy oil, with strong import demand supporting prices. Concerns over the possible impact of El Niño-related weather conditions in Southeast Asia also contributed to the upward movement.
Sugar recorded the largest increase among the five commodity groups tracked by FAO.
The FAO Sugar Price Index jumped 11.9 percent in August to 106.4 points, marking its highest level since June 2025.
The sharp increase reflected several supply concerns across major producing regions.
Expectations of lower sugarbeet yields in the European Union contributed to the rise, while El Niño-related weather conditions in Asia added to concerns about production.
Lower output expectations in Brazil also supported higher prices. At the same time, India’s announcement of duty-free imports of raw sugar influenced market expectations.
The combination of these developments made sugar the strongest-performing commodity group in the FAO index during August.
Dairy and Meat Markets Also Gain
Prices for dairy products and meat also moved higher during the month.
The FAO Dairy Price Index increased 2.3 percent, recording its first monthly rise in four months. The increase was led by concerns over tighter milk supplies in the European Union.
The movement in dairy prices added to the broad-based nature of the August increase, as every commodity group tracked by the FAO registered a gain.
The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 1.0 percent, with higher prices for poultry, pig and ovine meat offsetting a decline in bovine meat.
The decline in bovine meat prices was linked to intensified competition among exporters following the introduction of stronger Chinese import quotas.
The contrasting movements within the meat market nevertheless resulted in an overall increase in the meat index.
FAO Cuts 2026/27 Cereal Production Outlook
Alongside the latest food-price figures, FAO also lowered its outlook for global cereal production in the 2026/27 season.
The revision reflects deteriorating crop prospects in France and Poland, which are expected to outweigh better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina and Brazil.
Despite the downward revision, global wheat production remains projected at 810.7 million tonnes. FAO said this would still represent the second-largest wheat harvest on record.
Rice production, however, is expected to decline.
FAO forecasts global rice output at 553.1 million tonnes, representing a 1.9 percent reduction. The decline is linked to lower production margins and weather conditions associated with El Niño.
The revised cereal outlook adds another layer to concerns about supply conditions, particularly as climate-related disruptions continue to influence agricultural production in different regions.
Global Stocks Remain Relatively Comfortable
Despite the increase in food prices and the weaker cereal production outlook, FAO said global cereal stocks were not pointing to an immediate shortage from a historical perspective.
World cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 season are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, slightly above the level recorded at the beginning of the period.
The projected stocks-to-use ratio stands at 31.6 percent.
According to FAO, the ratio still indicates a relatively comfortable supply position when viewed against historical levels.
That assessment suggests that while supply risks are increasing and prices have begun moving higher, global cereal reserves remain sufficient to provide a degree of protection against immediate supply stress.
At the same time, global cereal trade is expected to weaken.
World cereal trade is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, down from record levels. The projected decline comes as the international food market faces a combination of weather-related production risks, trade disruptions and changing supply expectations.
Climate and Trade Risks Remain Central
The August figures underline the growing influence of conditions outside the agricultural production cycle on international food prices.
Climate shocks in major producing regions are affecting production expectations, while geopolitical tensions and disruptions to trade logistics are influencing how markets assess future availability.
The impact is visible across several commodity groups, from wheat and maize to vegetable oils and sugar.
FAO’s latest assessment therefore points to a food market that remains supplied at relatively comfortable historical levels but is becoming more sensitive to disruptions that could affect future production and trade.
Torero’s warning that a risk premium is returning to food markets reflects the growing importance of resilience and reliable trade flows in maintaining price stability.
For consumers and food-importing markets, the latest increase provides another indication that international food prices can come under pressure even when global stocks remain relatively strong.
The August index remains well below its March 2022 peak, but its second consecutive monthly increase, together with the broad gains recorded across all five commodity groups, signals renewed upward pressure.
With global cereal production expectations revised lower and climate and trade risks continuing to shape supply prospects, FAO’s latest figures point to a food market where stability increasingly depends on resilient production, open trade and secure movement of agricultural inputs and commodities.
