Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-chairwoman Alice Weidel has predicted that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will be removed from office before the end of 2026, following her party’s strong performance in a state election in eastern Germany.
Weidel made the prediction after the AfD defeated Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Sunday’s election in Saxony-Anhalt, describing the result as evidence of growing dissatisfaction with Germany’s political establishment.
The AfD’s performance was led by its candidate Ulrich Siegmund, who won 38 of the state’s 41 direct constituencies. The result marked the first time since 1949 that a far-right party had won a German state election with more than 40 per cent of the vote, according to the supplied report.
Weidel argued that the consequences of the result would extend beyond Saxony-Anhalt and could place further pressure on Merz and the federal CDU.
She predicted that support for the CDU at the national level would soon fall below 20 per cent, while suggesting that the party could ultimately turn against the chancellor.
“Something is going to happen with the extremely unpopular Friedrich Merz,” Weidel said.
“I think the CDU will consider replacing the chancellor,” she added.
Weidel went further by predicting an early federal election and a change at the top of the German government before the end of the year.
“I expect early federal elections, and I expect the current chancellor to be replaced before Christmas,” the AfD leader said.
Her forecast represents a political prediction rather than an announced decision by Merz’s governing coalition or the CDU. The supplied report did not indicate that the chancellor was facing an immediate removal from office or that the CDU had formally begun a process to replace him.
The AfD leader nevertheless portrayed the Saxony-Anhalt result as a significant rejection of policies she believes have damaged Germany. She said voters had become frustrated with decisions that, in her view, were contrary to the country’s interests.
“We will pursue sensible policies because our country has been ruined in recent years. People can’t tolerate the disaster anymore. Germany is becoming impoverished,” Weidel said.
She also used the election result to reiterate several of the AfD’s core policy positions, including reducing spending the party regards as unnecessary and strengthening Germany’s border controls.
Weidel said an AfD government would seek to deport people who are legally required to leave Germany, as well as foreign nationals convicted of crimes.
Her remarks came as the party sought to portray its victory in Saxony-Anhalt as evidence that its political message is gaining wider support among German voters.
The result in the eastern state was particularly significant for the AfD, with Siegmund securing 38 of the 41 direct constituencies. The party’s overall performance was presented by Weidel as a breakthrough capable of reshaping the political debate at the federal level.
Beyond domestic politics, Weidel also outlined how she believed Germany should approach its international relationships, particularly its relations with the United States and Russia.
She said the AfD would pursue strong relations with Washington while seeking to establish a channel of communication with Moscow. According to Weidel, the objective would be to develop an understanding with Russia and contribute to a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine.
The AfD leader criticised the German government’s approach to the conflict, arguing that Berlin could have played a more active diplomatic role instead of positioning itself primarily through rhetoric and support for one side.
Weidel pointed to the United States’ efforts involving Moscow and Kyiv as an example of the kind of diplomatic engagement she believes Germany could have pursued.
“In recent decades, it was common practice for us to act as a neutral mediator,” she said.
“That role would suit us much better than being rhetorical warmongers.”
Her comments placed the Ukraine war alongside domestic economic and migration policies as key areas where she believes Germany’s current leadership has failed.
For Weidel, the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt therefore represents more than a successful state election campaign. She presented it as a warning to the CDU and the federal government that voter dissatisfaction could translate into a broader political shift.
The CDU’s future support and Merz’s position at the federal level will ultimately depend on developments beyond the state election result, however. Weidel’s prediction of an early federal election and a change in chancellor remains her political forecast.
For now, the AfD has used its breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt to intensify its challenge to Germany’s established parties, while Weidel has publicly predicted that the pressure on Merz will become strong enough to force a leadership change before Christmas.
Germany: AfD Leader Weidel Predicts Merz Will Be Replaced as Chancellor Before Christmas
