Africa could suffer economic losses of between $10 billion and $20 billion if forecasts of an exceptionally powerful El Niño weather event materialise, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), which has warned that the phenomenon could trigger widespread humanitarian crises, economic disruption and large-scale migration across the continent.
The warning comes as climate experts monitor rapidly warming Pacific Ocean temperatures that could produce what meteorologists describe as a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño—a rare and unusually intense weather pattern capable of causing prolonged droughts, destructive floods and powerful storms in different parts of the world.
Speaking on the potential impact of the developing climate event, Anthony Nyong, the AfDB’s Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, said the economic consequences for Africa could be severe, affecting national economies, agriculture, financial systems and millions of vulnerable households.
According to him, countries expected to be hardest hit could experience a 1 to 2 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), translating into combined continental losses estimated at between $10 billion and $20 billion.
Stronger El Niño Raises Fresh Concerns
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal.
Although the event originates thousands of kilometres away from Africa, it has a major influence on weather patterns across the continent.
Historically, El Niño has been associated with severe drought across Southern Africa, while parts of East Africa often experience unusually heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides.
Climate scientists are now warning that the current warming trend could produce one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded, increasing the likelihood of widespread weather extremes.
If that occurs, experts say millions of people could face disruptions to food production, water supplies, public health and economic activity.
Agriculture Faces Major Threat
Agriculture is expected to bear some of the heaviest consequences should the anticipated El Niño intensify.
Large parts of Africa depend heavily on rainfall for farming, making crops highly vulnerable to prolonged dry spells or excessive flooding.
The African Development Bank estimates that African farmers are already projected to lose nearly $330 million in income this year because of climate-related disruptions.
Reduced rainfall in some regions could destroy crops before harvest, while floods elsewhere may wash away farmland, damage irrigation systems and destroy rural infrastructure.
Staple food crops such as maize, which millions of Africans rely on daily, could experience significant production declines.
Nyong warned that maize prices may double in several countries if crop failures become widespread, increasing pressure on already struggling households.
Livestock producers are also expected to face serious challenges as drought reduces grazing land and limits access to water.
Fishing Industry Also at Risk
The effects of El Niño are not expected to stop with agriculture.
The African Development Bank warned that fisheries across the continent could also suffer as rising ocean temperatures, changing marine ecosystems and stronger storms affect fish populations and coastal communities.
The bank estimates fisheries productivity could decline by between one and four percent, reducing incomes for thousands of households that depend on fishing as their primary source of livelihood.
Coastal communities may also experience increased flooding and erosion linked to rising sea levels and severe storms.
Government Budgets Under Pressure
Beyond agriculture, experts believe governments may struggle to cope with the financial consequences of repeated climate disasters.
According to Nyong, many African countries are already facing limited fiscal space because of high debt levels and competing development priorities.
He warned that governments may be forced to divert funding away from sectors such as healthcare, education and infrastructure in order to finance emergency disaster response.
The AfDB describes this situation as a “climate finance trap,” where countries repeatedly spend scarce public resources responding to disasters instead of investing in long-term economic development.
Such conditions could also place additional pressure on banking systems if businesses and borrowers affected by climate disasters struggle to repay loans.
Infrastructure damage caused by floods, storms or drought could further weaken national economies by disrupting transport, electricity supply and commercial activities.
Lessons from Previous El Niño Events
Africa has experienced devastating El Niño events before.
The 2023–2024 El Niño brought severe drought across much of Southern Africa while triggering destructive flooding in parts of East Africa.
Those weather extremes contributed to poor harvests, rising food prices, water shortages and damage to homes, roads and public infrastructure.
Several coastal regions also recorded unusually high sea levels during the event, increasing the risk of flooding in vulnerable communities.
Nyong noted that recovery from such disasters can take many years.
He cited experiences such as Cyclone Idai, which struck Mozambique in 2019, demonstrating how major climate disasters can leave lasting economic and humanitarian consequences long after emergency operations have ended.
Millions Could Be Forced to Relocate
One of the African Development Bank’s biggest concerns is the potential for widespread displacement if drought and flooding intensify.
Nyong warned that climate-related disasters could force large numbers of people to leave their homes in search of food, water and safer living conditions.
Countries identified as particularly vulnerable include Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria.
According to the AfDB official, climate migration could increase pressure on already fragile regions experiencing conflict, political instability or humanitarian emergencies.
Competition over shrinking water supplies, farmland and grazing areas may also heighten tensions within affected communities.
Experts have long warned that climate change can worsen existing security challenges by increasing pressure on natural resources.
Climate Adaptation Funding Gap Widens
The African Development Bank believes strengthening climate resilience will require substantially greater investment.
A United Nations assessment estimated that developing countries could collectively require approximately $365 billion annually by 2035 to effectively adapt to climate change.
However, international public funding for climate adaptation reached only $26 billion in 2023, leaving a significant financing gap.
Nyong said Africa alone may require up to $100 billion in adaptation funding this year if the expected El Niño develops into one of the strongest on record.
According to him, the continent’s adaptation needs were already estimated at around $50 billion over the coming year before forecasts of a super El Niño emerged.
The anticipated climate event could add another $30 billion to $50 billion to those funding requirements.
Building Resilience Before Disaster Strikes
Climate experts argue that investing in disaster preparedness is far less expensive than responding after catastrophic events have already occurred.
Strengthening irrigation systems, improving weather forecasting, expanding early warning systems, protecting water resources and developing climate-resilient agriculture are among the measures experts recommend.
Nyong stressed that proactive investment can significantly reduce future humanitarian and economic losses.
Using a simple analogy, he compared climate preparedness to building protective barriers before accidents occur rather than paying for costly emergency responses afterward.
His comments are expected to feature prominently in discussions ahead of the next round of international climate negotiations scheduled to take place in Turkey in November, where governments will once again debate financing for climate adaptation and resilience.
A Defining Test for Africa
As forecasts increasingly point toward a potentially historic El Niño event, African governments, humanitarian organisations and development partners are accelerating preparations to reduce its possible impact.
Analysts say the coming months will test the continent’s ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks while protecting economic growth and vulnerable populations.
Although the exact intensity of the developing El Niño remains uncertain, experts agree that early action, stronger regional cooperation and greater investment in climate resilience will be essential if Africa is to reduce the human and economic cost of another major climate disaster.
For millions of people whose livelihoods depend on farming, fishing and stable weather conditions, the warnings serve as an urgent reminder that climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate challenge requiring coordinated action across governments, financial institutions and the international community.
